Bumper 2011 Grain Harvest Fails to Rebuild Global Stocks

The world's farmers produced more grain in 2011 than ever before. Estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show the global grain harvest coming in at 2,295 million tonnes, up 53 million tonnes from the previous record in 2009.

Consumption grew by 90 million tonnes over the same period to 2,280 million tonnes. Yet with global grain production actually falling short of consumption in seven of the past 12 years, stocks remain worryingly low, leaving the world vulnerable to food price shocks.

Nearly half the calories consumed around the world come directly from grain, with grain-fed animal products making up part of the remainder. Three grains dominate the world harvest: wheat and rice, which are primarily eaten directly as food, and corn, which is largely used as a feedgrain for livestock.

Wheat was the largest of the world's grain harvests until the mid- 1990s. Then corn production surged ahead in response to growing demand for grain-fed animal products and, more recently, for fuel ethanol. Despite a drop in the important U.S. harvest due mostly to high summer temperatures, global corn production hit 868 million tonnes in 2011, an all-time high. The harvests of wheat (689 million tonnes) and rice (461 million tonnes) were also records.

Carryover grain stocks - the amount left in the world's grain elevators when the new harvest begins -now stand at 469 million tonnes, enough to cover 75 days of consumption at current levels. Between 1984 and 2001 grain stocks hovered around the more comfortable level of 100 days.

In 2002, however, grain production fell 88 million tonnes short of demand, and since then annual carryover stocks have averaged 72 days of use, close to the bare minimum for basic food security. In 2006, stocks bottomed out at 62 days, setting the stage for the 2007–08 food price spike when international grain prices doubled or tripled in a short amount of time.

For poor families in developing countries who spend half or more of their incomes on food, often grain staples, this led to empty plates and frustration. Protests erupted in some 35 countries as the number of hungry people in the world climbed above one billion.

But as water shortages spread and rising global temperatures bring more unpredictable weather - replete with heat waves, droughts, floods, and other crop-damaging extreme events - a higher level of grain reserves is needed to help cushion against harvest failures. Otherwise, preventing major food price shocks will require bumper harvests year after year, something that is far from guaranteed.

[...]

Bumper 2011 Grain Harvest Fails to Rebuild Global Stocks - IPS ipsnews.net