21 September 2011

Operation Twist? That’s Operation Illusion

Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan, coined a term called "illusion of control".  I can't find the exact text in his book in a short while, but to paraphrase, here is what he meant:

In 19th century or so, a patient going to a doctor had a higher chance of dying, so for most part the best course of action if you got ill would be to, I don't know, pray?  Just anything to keep you away from the doctor.  Why?  Medical treatments in those days are often hurting people more than curing people, but a doctor would be very compelled to do something on the patient when a patient came to see the doctor because, well, he's the doctor.

Now this is what the Federal Reserve is doing: it sells short-end and buys long-end.  Even before that, the long-end is at historical low rates, so the bond market lowered the rates by themselves.  Also, the Fed is not adding more money for now (which will not help either).  With growth slowing and unemployment still high, the Fed is so compelled to do something on the economy, so it does, even though everyone knew beforehand that it isn't going to work.


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