Amidst its growing engagement in the Middle East and the Arab Spring, as well as its resurrecting Kurdish insurgency problem, Turkey installed the NATO Missile Defense Shield in September 2011. Many observers interpreted Turkey's decision as a move against Iran, as a response to its expanding nuclear and missile capabilities, while Turkish officials indicated that the installment of this missile shield in Turkey was agreed upon much earlier and has nothing to do with Iran. The purpose of the missile shield also exposed differences within NATO countries. For example, French President Sarkozy had claimed "We call a cat, a cat; today's threat is Iran", while Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said "We also call a cat, a cat, but we haven't specified a threat like [Iran]". Hillary Clinton too had commented on the matter by "The shield is not directed against Russia; in fact it has to do with Iran".
Russia wasn't convinced however; Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov indicated "words fly, military technic is permanent; we want written guarantees". To follow up, Russia's decision to re-direct Kaliningrad missiles to European capitals increased the interpretations of a 'new Cold War'. Yet, some observers indicate that Russia's Kaliningrad move is not a mere reaction, but a part of a more profound thinking. According to Nevazisimaya Gazeta, Kremlin was informed of a U.S.-backed Israeli air raid against Iranian nuclear facilities and argued "… there will soon be a surprise raid. Iran will retaliate and the war will spread out. If Iran is invaded, Russia will not sit idly and will certainly send military aid." Indeed, Russia Minister of Defense supported this perception, explicitly warning the United States in a Reuters interview that "an attack against Iran would be a wrong decision".
Russia also considered Gebele radar installation as a test case for American intentions. When the Bush administration considered the installation of the radar site in Poland in 2007, Russia suggested that two countries should use Gebele radar base (with 6000 kilometer range extending from the Indian Ocean to North Africa) together. Bush government's refusal was interpreted by Russia as a sign of American expansionism, as the Gebele radar base is more than sufficient to act as an early warning system against Iran. Together with the installation of the NATO missile defense shield in Turkey, Russia no longer believes that this is intended as protection against Iran.
[...]
No comments:
Post a Comment