30 April 2012

Obama's weakly job numbers

The credibility gap is widening between what the Obama administration says about the jobs picture and what Americans sense is the grim reality. Despite the official line that things are getting better, the employment situation is growing progressively worse.

It is getting worse, and those job numbers are invalid as they don't include unemployed whose benefits have run out, or those who have given up. 

You would never know this from the headlines. The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial unemployment claims for the previous week had fallen by 1,000. This was the sixth reported decline in the last eight weeks. The overall impression is that the situation is improving, slowly but surely.

Over that same period, however, the actual number of new jobless per week has increased by almost 40,000. The Obama administration is managing perceptions by revising the weekly numbers upward after the fact. Every week for at least the last eight weeks, the initial jobless number has been raised after it was released, sometimes significantly. So while the combined initial figures over that period show a 13,000 new jobless decline, this is only because 49,000 jobless were not included in the initial reports.

Taxation has been constantly increasing, so of course unemployment is on the rise. It is proven that taxation creates a surplus of labor and a shortage of available jobs, leading to unemployment. It's basically dead weight loss, with the market being jobs and workers. 

Cut taxes (and spending) and unemployment will decrease. Both side of the political machine are unwilling to take these steps, which means they are willing to maintain unemployment levels that harm the population and out economy, which should come as no surprise to anyone. 

Revising upward after the fact allows the White House to generate favorable headlines even as joblessness increases. By shifting the previous week's total above the new jobless number, it appears that claims are falling when they actually are increasing. The 1,000-claim drop in the most recent report was only possible because the previous number was raised by 3,000. A week to week comparison shows a 2,000-claim increase, but this is the kind of bad news the Obama administration would rather not have reported. By rigging the numbers, they can say to the press that everything is trending in the right direction when in fact it is not.

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